12 January 2014

NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR THE 86th ACADEMY AWARDS

Should we do this thing? Let's do this thing. It's like the holidays: once a year you just shut up and do the done thing, for tradition's sake. I am eschewing commentary, because of being busy, but feel free to call me out on my logic in comments.

Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street

I'm officially predicting only these eight. If there are up to ten, I expect them to be, in this order:
Inside Llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks

Director
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alt: Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Actor
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Alt: Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Alt: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Alt: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Alt: Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave, by John Ridley
Before Midnight, by Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, & Richard Linklater
Captain Phillips, by Billy Ray
Philomena, by Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope
The Wolf of Wall Street, by Terence Winter)
Alt: August: Osage County, by Tracy Letts

Original Screenplay
American Hustle, by David O. Russell and Eric Singer
Blue Jasmine, by Woody Allen
Her, by Spike Jonze
Inside Llewyn Davis, by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Nebraska, by Bob Nelson
Alt: Dallas Buyers Club, by Craig Borten and Melissa Wallack

Cinematography
12 Years a Slave (Sean Bobbitt)
Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
Prisoners (Roger Deakins)
Alt: Captain Phillips (Barry Ackroyd)

Editing
12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)
American Hustle (Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers)
Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Alt: Nebraska (Kevin Tent)

Production Design
12 Years a Slave (Adam Stochausen; Alice Baker)
American Hustle (Judy Becker; Heather Loeffler)
Gravity (Andy Nicholson; Rosie Goodwin)
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin; Beverly Dunn)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Dan Hennah; Ra Vincent)
Alt: Her (K.K. Barrett; Gene Serdena)

Costume Design
12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)
American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
Oz the Great and Powerful (Gary Jones)
Saving Mr. Banks (Daniel Orlandi)
Alt: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (Trish Summerville)

Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Alt: Dallas Buyers Club

Score
12 Years a Slave (Hans Zimmer)
The Book Thief (John Williams)
Gravity (Steven Price)
Rush (Hans Zimmer)
Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)
Alt: Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)

Song
From August: Osage County: “Last Mile Home”
From Frozen: “Let It Go”
From Her: “The Moon Song”
From The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug: “I See Fire”
From The Great Gatsby: “Young and Beautiful”
Alt: From Lee Daniels’ The Butler: “You and I Ain’t Nothing No More”

Sound Mixing
All Is Lost
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Rush
Alt: Captain Phillips

Sound Editing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush
Alt: Frozen

Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness
Alt: Elysium

Animated Feature
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises
Alt: The Croods

Foreign Language
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Notebook (Hungary)
Omar (Palestine)
Two Lives (Germany)
Alt: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

Documentary Feature
20 Feet from Stardom
Blackfish
God Loves Uganda
The Square
Tim’s Vermeer
Alt: Cutie and the Boxer

Documentary Short
Jujitsu-ing Reality
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Recollections
Alt: Facing Fear

Animated Short
Get a Horse!
Gloria Victoria
Hollow Land
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Alt: Feral

Live-Action Short
Kush
That Wasn’t Me
Throat Song
Two
The Voorman Problem
Alt: Helium

7 comments:

Brian said...

All I'm gonna say is if Gravity doesn't win both the sound awards, they might as well not have Oscars in those categories.

I'm not a guy that ever generally notices sound design* but it was so fucking immense and overwhelmingly effective in Gravity.

*Last film I did was The Dark Knight Rises, where I noticed what a complete and utter disaster the sound design on that film was. Before that... The brilliance of Inception, probably. 1 for 2 for Nolan...

Tim said...

The very beginning of Gravity is easily the most exciting sound-related moment I had all year, so I'm 100% with you. The only reason I can see it losing either is if Llewyn Davis or Frozen get nominated in Sound Mixing; a musical always wins Sound Mixing if it gets nominated.

Jeremy said...

One of these days I'm gonna figure out the difference between sound mixing and sound editing.

Tim said...

Super reductive to the point of being almost useless shorthand:

Mixing is how loud things are relative to each other and what speaker they come from. Editing is sound manipulation and distortion and sound effects.

Michael James Roberson said...

No Oscar Isaac for Best Actor?

kevin said...

You don't think Her is going to get any Best Picture love? I could easily see it getting a nomination over Captain Phillips, which is such a stripped-down thriller that it doesn't seem "Important" enough for the Academy.

Tim said...

Michael- I don't unfortunately. Best Actor is way too crowded with famous people and leads in more prominent Oscar-friendly movies. He's on my Top 5 easily, but that doesn't help anybody.

Kevin- Captain Phillips is not, I think, the weak link here - Nebraska and Philomena are (or is that Philomania now?). I don't see how Her and Inside Llewyn Davis can possibly both fit in - only room for so many critically loved but off-kilter indie comedies - and of course I'm not predicting ILD either. But it's a tiny bit more in line with the Academy's established tastes, and there's a known contingent of Coen lovers. Her has the added difficulty of genre snobbery.

I would not, anyway, be sad to see it show up, particularly if it bumped any of the half of the nominees I'm predicting that I liked less.